This paper analyses recent poverty dynamics with a focus on Asian and Pacific economies
and their demographic profiles. We decompose poverty changes in the region into
contributions from economic growth and changing inequality and investigate how both
channels relate to demographic and socio-economic factors.
Our results show that recent poverty reduction in Asia and the Pacific was predominantly
driven by strong economic growth performances. Reductions in income inequality also
contributed to poverty reduction, but no more than a third (and substantially less in countries
with a young demographic profile). Through a counterfactual poverty decomposition
approach, we show that poverty reduction in the region was stronger than countries’ initial
macroeconomic conditions would have suggested. In that sense, countries and territories in
the Asia-Pacific region “overperformed” in poverty reduction, mostly due to higher growth
than one could have expected.
This pattern was particularly strong in countries that we classify as “aged” or “ageing.” Our
paper shows that an increasing old-age population share can be positively associated with
economic growth and poverty reduction. This is plausible if experience effects of an ageing
workforce outweigh age-related declines in labour-force participation.
We further find no evidence for a trade-off between inequality reduction and economic
growth, unless one of these two channels of poverty reduction is pushed very far, and we
find that Asian and Pacific countries with the lowest social protection coverage were those
with less progress in poverty reduction.